The recent glacial outburst from the Shisper glacier and the subsequent damage caused to the bridge in Hasan Abad valley of Hunza that blocked the Karakorum Highway once again, highlighted the importance of focusing on mitigating the ill effects of Climate Change. The impact of Climate Change on the ecosystem and atmosphere is menacing, especially in Pakistan, which is one of the top 10 countries most affected by Climate Change. Gilgit Baltistan, in particular, is facing a double-edged sword due to Climate Change: extreme cold and excessive snowfall in winters, and glacial outbursts and floodings in summers.
Around 10 percent of the world’s land surface is covered with glaciers, which provides 70% of the earth’s freshwater. Due to the sudden rise in temperature and the subsequent melting of glaciers at a faster rate, the availability of fresh water in the coming years will be a great challenge for humanity. The rise in the sea level is another threat posed by global warming. A research paper published in a reputable scientific journal, Nature, reveals that from 2000 to 2019, the glacial melting caused the sea level to rise by 0.744mm every year. The rate of glacial melting in the 21st century has doubled as compared to the previous century. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO)’s data reveals that the temperature in the Arctic region touched a record high of 38 degrees Celsius in 2020, which is threatening the existence of glaciers there.
Climate change and Pakistan
The menace of global warming and sudden Climate Change has adversely effected Pakistan, just as the rest of the world has suffered. Since it is one of the world’s top ten countries affected by Climate Change, which is manifesting itself through floods, GLOFs (Glacial Lake Outburst Floods), rising temperature and heatwaves. Gilgit Baltistan is one of the regions adversely effected by Climate Change. Astore, Skardu, Ghizer, Gilgit and Hunza are more prone to landslides, flooding and GLOFs. The famous Attabad lake in Gojal, Hunza, which now has become a famous tourist site, was formed due to a massive landslide that killed around 20 people and damaged hundreds of houses in Gojal. The GLOF that wreaked havoc in Immit valley was equally devastating, forming an artificial lake in the valley and blocking the connection of ten small villages with the rest of the country.
Pakistan has the largest number of glaciers outside the Polar Region, with over 5200 glaciers, around 2000 of them are in GB. Three of the world’s seven largest glaciers outside the polar region are in GB. These glaciers are the reservoirs of fresh water, which benefit the residents of GB as well as mainland Pakistan. However, due to rising temperatures, glaciers melt at a higher rate of 0.5% in summers. Ghulam Rasool, the head of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), said in 2018 that in the last 80 years, the average temperature in Gilgit Baltistan (GB) have increased by 1.4 degrees Celsius as compared to 0.6 degrees Celsius in the rest of the country. The Hinarche glacier in Bagrot valley, Gilgit has retreated about one km in the last 20 years. The Passu glacier is also decreasing every passing day. The locals of these villages testify to the findings of these scientific studies. Ghulam Ali, a 65-years-old resident of Bagrot valley, recalls: “The Hinarche glacier was touching this place, just 30 years ago,” he tells sitting on the road that is one kilometer away and 200 meter up from the glacier.
Outcome of Glacier melting
The increasing melting of glaciers has many negative outcomes, as it can cause an increase in the flow of rivers (which will cause a decrease in rivers’ water eventually when the glaciers will reduce considerably), floods, avalanches and the Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). The Chairman of Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority had warned in 2020 that because the snowfall in GB has increased three folds in winters, it increases the risks of floods during summers as the temperatures in the region also increase. According to a 2018 UNDP report, there are over 3000 glacial lakes in Gilgit Baltistan, and 33 of them are at risk of hazardous flooding, known as the Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs).
Glaciers are basically moving or flowing ice, which also contains debris, gravel, and stones. Generally, the ice that melts flows towards rivers but due to increased melting caused by global warming, the debris in glaciers accumulates on one side, forming a temporary lake. But due to land sliding, avalanche, a small magnitude earthquake, or because of the pressure of lake water, the GLOFs result in damaging everything that comes in its way. The increasing number and the threatening magnitude of GLOFs are concerning.
According to a study done by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), if global warming is contained up to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as vowed in the Paris Agreement, 36% of glaciers in the Himalayan, Karakoram and Hindukush regions will be gone by 2100. The report also maintains that the glaciers around the world are shrinking each passing day, but in the GB, particularly in the Karakoram range, the glaciers are increasing due to a meteorological anomaly. The Canadian glaciologist Kenneth Hewitt has described ‘The Karakoram Anomaly’, as an increase of glaciers during the winter months, but they melt during the summer at a faster rate because of the rising temperatures. Even the current rate of glacial melting in some parts of GB is not alarming, however, it can get threatening when global warming increases.
Economic Setbacks
Several projects have been designed in many areas of GB to mitigate the ill effects caused due to GLOFs and Climate Change in general. These include a threat detecting system, construction of barricades in GLOF prone areas, and efforts to preserve forest and glaciers with the help of village committees. Pakistan’s forest cover of only 5% is disastrously low, as compared to the global average of 31%. The Federal Ministry of Climate Change with the help of The International Green Climate Fund has started a 37 million USD project to initiate GLOF risk reduction activities.
The efforts to alleviate the damages caused by global warming and Climate Change need to be two-fold: first is the long-term goal of mitigating Climate Change by increasing forestation, while decreasing the use of fossil fuels and raising the awareness of the local community about the perils of Climate Change. The second and immediate goal should be to help the affected people rebuild the damaged infrastructure, and evacuate people from disaster-hit areas and resettle them. These efforts need to be made before it is too late
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